HealthyTracking EmergingDeveloping Confirmed
Watchmen · fortnightly tracker · demo

Cycle 20 · day 12 of 14

Data through yesterday · every order counted once, at checkout · built fresh each morning

Reconciliation — before anything else

Last cycle: the order system holds 1,537 orders → 68 cancelled with nothing bought → 1,469 = the attribution model = this report. About two-thirds of orders came through paid channels — inside the normal band. Nothing missing on either side. If these three numbers ever disagree, the report says so at the top instead of carrying on.

Portfolio snapshot

This cycle so far
1,411
+15% on last year · projected 1,499
Last 3 cycles, smoothed
1,463
+15% on last year
Year to date
25,922
+19% on last year
Cost per order, last 3
$124
+7% vs the six cycles before

Per-product overview — click a product for its detail

ProductSo farProjected (range)Last cycle3-cycle avgThis cycle YoY3-cycle YoYRead
Product Alpha245258 (221–296)207217+20%+15%Growing
Product Beta8592 (78–105)6180——Growing
Product Gamma194207 (177–238)201226-15%+5%Easing
Product Delta279296 (252–340)313326-5%-5%Declining
Product Epsilon163173 (146–201)170188+25%+15%Growing
Product Zeta105112 (95–129)88103——Growing
Product Eta102109 (92–126)146134——Growing
Product Theta6871 (61–82)5456——Declining
Product Iota5861 (51–71)7161——Steady
Other products, net of two-product orders11211915674——not assessed
Total (each order once)1,4111,499 (1,275–1,724)1,4691,463+15%+15%Growing

Products without a year of history are judged on their own trend, not on last year. Product rows count an order under every product it contains, so they add to more than the total.

Product signals — what the watchers say

PortfolioGrowing

Orders over the last three cycles are running about 15% ahead of last year, holding pace. Cost per order $124 over the last three cycles, 7% above the six before — inside its normal swing.

Product DeltaDeclining · held at Developing

Orders over the last three cycles are about 5% below last year, and the long-run trend agrees. Cost per order $107, 21% above the six cycles before. Enough watchers fire for Confirmed, but volume is still healthy, so the moderator holds the call at Developing — a cooling growth rate, watched closely, not yet a fall.

Product GammaEasing

Still ahead of last year, but growing more slowly than before. The level is healthy, so this reads as growth easing, not decline — the moderator stops it being raised as an alarm.

Product AlphaGrowing · Emerging rise

Orders running about 15% ahead of last year; the most recent cycles are stronger still. Cost per order $107, 24% above the six cycles before — worth watching alongside the growth.

Product ZetaGrowing · low confidence

Too young for a year-on-year read, so it is judged on its own recent trend: rising, but the last couple of cycles are choppy. The tracker says so rather than overstating it.

Product detail

Product Alpha

Growing ↑ Overview

Assessed on year-on-year history — this product against the same cycles last year.

This year vs last year
This cycle (projected)
258
218
Last 3 cycles, smoothed
218
190
Prior 6 cycles, smoothed
187
184
This year Last year
Last 3 cycles vs the 6 before
Last 3ChangePrior 6
Average orders per cycle218+15%187
Growth on last year+15%+10 pts+5%
Cost per order$107+25%$86
Trend in the growth rate — five horizons
Recent
↑
inside noise
Short
↑
inside noise
Medium
↑
inside noise
Long
↓
Emerging
Very long
↓
inside noise
What the watchers say

Pattern: Volatile — frequently alternates; single-fortnight readings are low signal.

Last 9 cycles
Cycle 19Cycle 18Cycle 17Cycle 16Cycle 15Cycle 14Cycle 13Cycle 12Cycle 11
Orders207245221194201180194180211
Cycle on cycle-15%+10%+15%-5%+10%-5%+10%-15%—
Growth on last year-5%+65%+10%-5%+20%+35%+10%-20%+25%
Cost per order$118$102$105$97$89$79$93$92$73
Cost per order, last year$55$63$67$67$59$67$47$34$76

Product Beta

Growing ↑ Overview

Assessed on its own recent trend — not enough history yet for a fair year-on-year read.

Volume — this year vs last year
This cycle (projected)
92
105
Last 3 cycles, smoothed
78
95
Prior 6 cycles, smoothed
75
88
This year Last year
Last 3 cycles vs the 6 before
Last 3ChangePrior 6
Average orders per cycle78+10%75
Cost per order$111-5%$115
Trend in the order volume — five horizons
Recent
↑
inside noise
Short
↑
inside noise
Medium
↓
Emerging
What the watchers say

Early-downturn watch: all clear — no early sign of a downturn.

Pattern: Early stage — last reading below 3-fortnight avg, flat trajectory.

Ad-account changes: none this cycle.

Last 9 cycles
Cycle 19Cycle 18Cycle 17Cycle 16Cycle 15Cycle 14Cycle 13Cycle 12Cycle 11
Orders619982825182589968
Cycle on cycle-40%+20%0%+60%-40%+40%-40%+45%—
Cost per order$176$83$100$96$139$111$160$88$124

Product Gamma

Still growing, just slower ↑ Overview

Assessed on year-on-year history — this product against the same cycles last year.

This year vs last year
This cycle (projected)
207
245
Last 3 cycles, smoothed
224
218
Prior 6 cycles, smoothed
245
218
This year Last year
Last 3 cycles vs the 6 before
Last 3ChangePrior 6
Average orders per cycle224-5%245
Growth on last year+5%-10 pts+15%
Cost per order$121+25%$94
Trend in the growth rate — five horizons
Recent
↓
Confirmed
Short
↑
inside noise
Medium
↑
inside noise
Long
↓
Emerging
Very long
↑
inside noise
What the watchers say

Pattern: Volatile — frequently alternates; single-fortnight readings are low signal.

Ad-account changes: none this cycle.

Last 9 cycles
Cycle 19Cycle 18Cycle 17Cycle 16Cycle 15Cycle 14Cycle 13Cycle 12Cycle 11
Orders201211221241265231289224197
Cycle on cycle-5%-5%-10%-10%+15%-20%+30%+15%—
Growth on last year-15%+5%-5%+30%+10%+30%+35%+15%-15%
Cost per order$122$118$121$96$90$106$81$102$98
Cost per order, last year$92$106$94$101$85$117$93$98$92

Product Delta

Declining ↑ Overview

Assessed on year-on-year history — this product against the same cycles last year.

This year vs last year
This cycle (projected)
296
313
Last 3 cycles, smoothed
326
350
Prior 6 cycles, smoothed
337
347
This year Last year
Last 3 cycles vs the 6 before
Last 3ChangePrior 6
Average orders per cycle326-5%337
Growth on last year-5%-5 pts0%
Cost per order$107+20%$89
Trend in the growth rate — five horizons
Recent
↓
Emerging
Short
↓
Confirmed
Medium
↓
Confirmed
Long
↓
Confirmed
Very long
↓
inside noise
What the watchers say

Moderator engaged — Confirmed held at Developing. The watchers are firing on the year-on-year growth rate, but order volume is still healthy, so this reads as growth cooling rather than a product in decline.

Pattern: Broadly negative — below baseline 4 of last 6 fortnights.

Ad-account changes: none this cycle.

Last 9 cycles
Cycle 19Cycle 18Cycle 17Cycle 16Cycle 15Cycle 14Cycle 13Cycle 12Cycle 11
Orders313320340337286309354316371
Cycle on cycle0%-5%0%+20%-10%-10%+10%-15%—
Growth on last year-15%-15%0%-5%-10%-10%+10%-15%+10%
Cost per order$109$126$89$72$105$103$77$97$81
Cost per order, last year$81$75$85$81$94$85$84$77$105

Product Epsilon

Growing ↑ Overview

Assessed on year-on-year history — this product against the same cycles last year.

This year vs last year
This cycle (projected)
173
139
Last 3 cycles, smoothed
187
163
Prior 6 cycles, smoothed
160
139
This year Last year
Last 3 cycles vs the 6 before
Last 3ChangePrior 6
Average orders per cycle187+20%160
Growth on last year+20%+0 pts+15%
Cost per order$93+5%$89
Trend in the growth rate — five horizons
Recent
↑
inside noise
Short
↓
inside noise
Medium
↓
Confirmed
Long
↓
Confirmed
Very long
↓
Confirmed
What the watchers say

Moderator engaged — Confirmed held at Developing. The watchers are firing on the year-on-year growth rate, but order volume is still healthy, so this reads as growth cooling rather than a product in decline.

Pattern: Broadly negative — below baseline 4 of last 6 fortnights.

Ad-account changes: none this cycle.

Last 9 cycles
Cycle 19Cycle 18Cycle 17Cycle 16Cycle 15Cycle 14Cycle 13Cycle 12Cycle 11
Orders170194228143170163163167160
Cycle on cycle-10%-15%+60%-15%+5%0%0%+5%—
Growth on last year+10%-5%+55%+15%-15%+35%+10%+20%0%
Cost per order$90$105$84$100$80$85$86$88$97
Cost per order, last year$55$29$42$37$24$50$42$30$30

Product Zeta

Growing ↑ Overview

Assessed on its own recent trend — not enough history yet for a fair year-on-year read.

Volume — this year vs last year
This cycle (projected)
112
71
Last 3 cycles, smoothed
102
68
Prior 6 cycles, smoothed
88
75
This year Last year
Last 3 cycles vs the 6 before
Last 3ChangePrior 6
Average orders per cycle102+15%88
Cost per order$166-5%$176
Trend in the order volume — five horizons
Recent
↑
inside noise
Short
↑
inside noise
Medium
↑
inside noise
Long
↑
inside noise
Very long
↑
inside noise
What the watchers say

Early-downturn watch: all clear — no early sign of a downturn.

Pattern: Early stage — last reading below 3-fortnight avg, flat trajectory.

Ad-account changes: none this cycle.

Last 9 cycles
Cycle 19Cycle 18Cycle 17Cycle 16Cycle 15Cycle 14Cycle 13Cycle 12Cycle 11
Orders88851229211695929554
Cycle on cycle+5%-30%+35%-20%+20%+5%-5%+75%—
Cost per order$181$195$138$131$140$152$227$181$269

Product Eta

Growing ↑ Overview

Assessed on its own recent trend — not enough history yet for a fair year-on-year read.

Volume — this year vs last year
This cycle (projected)
109
102
Last 3 cycles, smoothed
133
85
Prior 6 cycles, smoothed
109
78
This year Last year
Last 3 cycles vs the 6 before
Last 3ChangePrior 6
Average orders per cycle133+20%109
Cost per order$111+10%$103
Trend in the order volume — five horizons
Recent
↑
inside noise
Short
↑
inside noise
Medium
↑
inside noise
Long
↑
inside noise
Very long
↑
inside noise
What the watchers say

Early-downturn watch: all clear — no early sign of a downturn.

Pattern: Early stage — three-fortnight trend flat against avg.

Last 9 cycles
Cycle 19Cycle 18Cycle 17Cycle 16Cycle 15Cycle 14Cycle 13Cycle 12Cycle 11
Orders14616711612213310210911285
Cycle on cycle-10%+45%-5%-10%+30%-5%-5%+30%—
Cost per order$123$100$117$98$85$101$115$103$130

Product Theta

Declining ↑ Overview

Assessed on its own recent trend — not enough history yet for a fair year-on-year read.

Volume — this year vs last year
This cycle (projected)
71
41
Last 3 cycles, smoothed
54
41
Prior 6 cycles, smoothed
58
41
This year Last year
Last 3 cycles vs the 6 before
Last 3ChangePrior 6
Average orders per cycle54-5%58
Cost per order$93-5%$96
Trend in the order volume — five horizons
Recent
↑
inside noise
Short
↓
Emerging
Medium
↓
Confirmed
Long
↓
Emerging
Very long
↑
inside noise
What the watchers say

Early-downturn watch: all clear — no early sign of a downturn.

Pattern: Early growth — three-fortnight trend rising.

Ad-account changes: none this cycle.

Last 9 cycles
Cycle 19Cycle 18Cycle 17Cycle 16Cycle 15Cycle 14Cycle 13Cycle 12Cycle 11
Orders546151615148445182
Cycle on cycle-10%+20%-15%+20%+5%+10%-15%-40%—
Cost per order$86$86$107$96$97$107$151$97$56

Product Iota

Holding steady ↑ Overview

Assessed on its own recent trend — not enough history yet for a fair year-on-year read.

Volume — this year vs last year
This cycle (projected)
61
65
Last 3 cycles, smoothed
61
27
Prior 6 cycles, smoothed
54
3
This year Last year
Last 3 cycles vs the 6 before
Last 3ChangePrior 6
Average orders per cycle54-5%58
Cost per order$143+60%$89
Trend in the order volume — five horizons
Recent
↑
inside noise
Short
↓
Emerging
Medium
↓
Developing
Long
↑
inside noise
Very long
↑
inside noise
What the watchers say

Early-downturn watch: all clear — no early sign of a downturn.

Pattern: Early growth — three-fortnight trend rising, last reading above 3-fortnight avg.

Last 9 cycles
Cycle 19Cycle 18Cycle 17Cycle 16Cycle 15Cycle 14Cycle 13Cycle 12Cycle 11
Orders715854347544417151
Cycle on cycle+25%+5%+60%-55%+70%+10%-45%+40%—
Cost per order$135$187$105$123$60$100$113$69$109

How it works

  1. Ground truth first. Orders are reconciled to the accounting records and the attribution model before any number is shown.
  2. One set of watchers per product. Each product is judged against its own normal swing, not a portfolio average — a small product's quiet fortnight is not an alarm.
  3. Signals escalate. One watcher = Emerging, two = Developing, three = Confirmed. A single fortnight can never move the call on its own.
  4. Slowing is not declining. A moderator separates growth that is easing from a real fall, so the team isn't chasing healthy products.
  5. The fortnight in progress is projected, with a range, from the days so far — a direction, never a verdict.

Demo report — all figures scaled and anonymised. Real client data not shown.